Sales of previously owned homes rose in December for the third straight month, bringing the supply of homes listed for sale to the lowest level since 2006 and offering a glimmer of hope that the housing market could be starting to climb out of a profound downturn.

Existing-home sales increased 5% in December from a month earlier, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million units, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ chief economist, called the December gain “a good finish to a very tough year.”

CloseMany economists had predicted that 2011 would be the worst year on record for existing home sales, but the year ended with 4.26 million sales, about 1.6% higher than the 4.19 million existing homes sold in 2010. Market-watchers attributed this to a minor surge in sales at year-end, driven by historically low mortgage rates, falling prices, active investor-buyers and increasing consumer confidence.

Still, economists cautioned that it’s too early to assume that the market is recovering. “These were positive numbers, but that doesn’t mean the market is getting better. Lenders have been trying to get rid of distressed homes, and investors been snapping them up,” said Patrick Newport, chief economist at IHS Global Insight. According to the Realtors report, investors purchased 21% of all homes in December, up from 19% in November.

WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath has details of 2006 Federal Reserve transcripts that reveal the Fed did not forsee the coming housing bust and resulting economic downturn. Photo: REUTERS/Jason Reed

Brendan Conway has the morning’s economic news that will impact markets on Tuesday, including Germany’s confidence report, Jeffries and General Mills earnings reports, and new housing data. AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar

The inventory of homes for sale declined in December to 2.38 million, the equivalent of a 6.2-month supply, assuming the pace of sales remain at December’s level. A six-month supply of homes typically is considered healthy, although NAR’s numbers don’t take into account the “shadow inventory” of homes that are either in foreclosure or on bank balance sheets and not yet listed for sale.

Prices, meanwhile, continue to fall. The median price in December was $164,500, down 2.5% from a year earlier. Prices were down in all regions except the West, where prices rose slightly, compared with a year ago. For all of 2011, the median was $166,100, the lowest since 2002.

“What you really want to see is sales going up, inventories going down, and prices going up, not down,” said David Semmens, an economist with Standard Chartered. “People still feel they can hold off buying a house because the recovery won’t be that aggressive. It’s still very much a buyer’s market.”

That buyer’s market allowed Andrew Gonzales, a 24-year-old police officer in Santa Fe, N.M., to be picky about price when looking for a home for himself and his three-year-old daughter. He closed last month on a $132,000, three-bedroom home in Rio Rancho, a suburb of Albuquerque, after the price was cut twice. Just before closing, the home was appraised for $18,000 higher than the sales price, at $150,000, by a private appraiser.

“I got tired of paying rent, and I’m a single father, so I wanted a home for my daughter,” he said. “I was just waiting for the price to come down.”

Vision Equity, a company that buys foreclosed homes at auctions in Indianapolis, stepped up the volume of its purchases this winter, buying about 45 homes a month in October, November and December, compared with about 30 homes a month last summer.

“There’s a lot of cash investor activity right now,” said Steve Olson, a spokesman for Vision Equity. “The chatter at the courthouse was, there’s going to be a lot more product coming on the market, and the pricing is going to be good for investors. And we prepared our own investors for that.”

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Interest rates are the lowest in decades, enticing many borrowers to shop for a loan. Mortgage lenders adjust their rates based on perceptions of risk, so unless the borrower can show they’re a low-risk individual, the borrower is unlikely to qualify for a rate that matches those seen in recent advertisements and headlines.

Making sense of the story

• The rates quoted are averages drawn from a variety of financial institutions, and lenders use varied approaches to set them. Consumers who want to try for the lowest rates available need to consider basic factors, such as credit score, points, property type, down payment, and length of the loan.

• Credit score: The ideal borrower has a FICO score of 740 or higher, which puts the individual in the best place for pricing.

• Points: The lowest rates usually are decreased by paying a fee called a point, or 1 percent of the loan amount. Borrowers may buy points in order to get the best rates at many banks. Points might make sense depending on the borrower’s financial situation and how long they expect to stay in the home.

• Property type: Borrowers planning to buy a duplex or a four-unit build likely will have a higher interest rate. Condominiums also may have a rate premium rate, especially if they are newer or the down payment is less than 25 percent. Lenders also may charge more if the borrower is not planning to live in the home.

• Down payment: Borrowers who put down at least 25 percent are more likely to obtain the best interest rates. Lenders offer different breaks on rates if equity in the property is higher, so borrowers should ask what is available.

• Length of loan: Borrowers who are likely to move in a few years may want to look into an adjustable-rate loan with a low interest rate fixed for a few years, and adjusted afterword.

WASHINGTON – 2012 looks to be another year of opportunity for those who can afford to buy or refinance a home.

Freddie Mac says the average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages fell to 3.91% this week, matching the record low reached two weeks ago. Last week, the average rate for these loans was 3.95%.

The average on 15-year fixed mortgages ticked down to 3.23% from 3.24%. That’s up from 3.21% two weeks, which was also a record low.

Mortgage rates are lower because they tend to track the yield on 10-year Treasury notes, which fell below 2% this week.

Still, cheap mortgage rates have done little to boost the depressed U.S. housing market. Many Americans either can’t take advantage of the rates or have already done so.

Friday, November 11th, 2011, 4:12 pm

Gradual improvement in the housing market is expected next year, with existing-home sales edging up 4% to 5% and new home sales getting an even bigger boost off this year’s record lows, the chief economist of the nation’s largest real estate group said Friday.

“Tight mortgage credit conditions have been holding back homebuyers all year, and consumer confidence has been shaky recently,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said. “Nonetheless, there is a sizeable pent-up demand based on population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon that can’t continue indefinitely.”

Yun, who made his comments during the annual NAR conference for real estate agents under way in Anaheim, Calif., projected gross domestic product growth of 1.8% for 2011, rising to 2.2% in 2012 with the unemployment rate declining to 8.7% by the second half of 2012.

Mortgage interest rates, he predicted, would gradually rise from record 2011 lows to 4.5% by the middle of 2012.

“Very favorable affordability conditions will dominate next year as well, which will probably be the second best year on record dating back to 1970. Our hope is that credit restrictions will ease and allow more homebuyers to take advantage of current opportunities.”

Existing-home sales are forecast to edge up about 1% this year. Based on NAR’s current projection model, existing-home sales would total 4.96 million in 2011. NAR is revising downward existing-home sales totals in recent years although it expects little change to previously reported comparisons based on percentage change.

New-home sales for 2011 are projected at 302,000 this year, a record low, with expectations that they will rise about 23% to 372,000 in 2012.

Housing starts are forecast to rise about 8% to 630,000 from 583,000 in 2011.

With falling inventory, the median home price should rise in 2012, he said. “Home prices have yet to show a definitive stabilization pattern in most areas. Still, given an over-correction in prices, there likely will be moderate appreciation in 2012,” Yun said.

Richard Peach, senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Board of New York, said the economy continues to disappoint. “Among the significant structural impediments are the legacy of the housing boom and bust, and fiscal contrition at the state and local level.”

He promoted moving foreclosures by giving incentives to military servicemembers.

“My idea is to allocate certificates to 2.5 million service members who served in Afghanistan and Iraq that could be used as a down payment on a foreclosed home in the Fannie or Freddie portfolio,” he said. This would help to absorb the inventory and stabilize the housing market.

The state-run program, “Keep Your Home California,” which helps homeowners struggling to pay their mortgages now has broader eligibility guidelines. Borrowers who did “cash-out” refinances and own multiple properties now are eligible for the program, according to California Housnig Finance Agency officials.

Making sense of the story

•To date, Keep Your Home California has helped approximately 8,000 low- and moderate-income households that are behind on loan payments or close to default.

•There are four parts to the program: Mortgage help for the unemployed, mortgage aid for homeowners with documented financial hardship, relocation help for those in the midst of a short sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure, and reduction of principal.

•Homeowners who completed “cash-out” mortgage refinancing now are allowed to take part in the four programs outlined above, and borrowers who own more than one property also can apply for the program. Previously, these two groups of borrowers were excluded from participation.

•Mortgage aid to unemployed borrowers also has been extended to nine months, instead of six. Such homeowners can receive up to $3,000 a month. To qualify, borrowers must be receiving unemployment benefits.

•Additionally, the program has reinstated up to $20,000 in past-due mortgage payments instead of the previous $15,000 cap.

•To review qualification guidelines, visit www.KeepYourHomeCalifornia.org or www.ConservaTuCasaCalifornia.org.